Tag: churn

SWTOR: The Retention Rate Question

Posted on by Gazimoff

Earlier today I was listening to Talk of the Galaxy over on Galactic Public Radio, when they reminded me that the month of game time bundled with the full version of the game was about to expire and that subscriptions were just about to kick in. There was a little bit of debate about how many players would actually maintain their subscription after the end of the month, with the show hosts generally feeling that it’s a difficult thing to predict.

Trying to forecast renewal rates is pretty challenging at the best of times, mainly because there’s very few benchmarks on these figures for MMOs. The most common figure that’s announced is the total subscriber base, although sometimes we’ll hear about how those subscribers are distributed by market. We’re also not given churn rates, so we have no clue about the number of new subscribers coming in versus the ones that are leaving.

So what exactly is there to go on? Well, assuming that the best renewal rate BioWare can hope for is 100%, let’s have a look at what will help them keep that number high and what’s dragging it down like a lead weight.

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The Unknown Warcraft Subscriber

Posted on by Gazimoff

There’s been a flurry of commentary recently on the recent earnings call by Activision Blizzard, where they provide some highlights on their third quarter performance. If you’re interested in reading through the entire transcript of the call you can find it at Seeking Alpha.

There are a couple of quick facts to pull out: Warcraft has dropped by nearly 2 million subscriptions to 10.3 million worldwide. Most of the loss is thought to be in China, an area which represents over 50% of the total subscriber base. The estimated rough split is approximately 5 million subscribers in the Far East, 3 million in US/Aus and 2 million in Europe/Russia.

There’s also the news on how much money Blizzard has made in the last quarter. The developer made nearly $300 million in revenue and $140 million in income – that’s a healthy profit margin of around 40% once tax gets factored in. Whichever way you slice the cake, Blizzard’s in a strong position considering that it’s not had a major release this year.

There’s only one snag with the information that’s been given to us. Although it’s easy to judge the overall performance of the company, it becomes difficult to judge the performance of Warcraft as an MMO. People will point to subscriber numbers going down and predict that this means doom for the game. That’s just simply not possible to do with the information we have available.

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The Infinite Trial

Posted on by Gazimoff

I find it funny how the word “trial” can be taken in two ways.

There’s the positive side – being able to sample something or try it out before you commit to it. After all, we all want something for free and being able to try a bit of it for free sounds almost as good. Like being able to have a taste of the chocolate cake before buying it.

The other side of trial isn’t so great – two groups come together to settle a dispute in a formal manner. Being “put on trial” conjures up feelings of discomfort and ordeal. Even being part of a trial, such as a juror or witness, is no great joy.

With that said you can probably understand why the concept of an infinite free trial doesn’t exactly fill me with bountiful leaps of joy. After all, I don’t want to be standing in front of the Jury of Cake explaining why I devoured all of the prime chocolate gateau.

A sneaky little blue post crept out explaining that Blizzard’s free trial of Warcraft would no longer be limited to ten days. Instead you’d be able to play the game as much as you like for as long as you like, but you’ll never be able to progress beyond level 20 until you shell out for an account. You’ll be able to gorge yourself on as much cake as you like, but it’ll only be the spongy bit at the bottom. The delicious frosting with all the chocolate shavings and the glacé cherries will remain out of reach until you reach for your wallet.

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